Elon Musk Presents: Getting Humans To Mars

I hint about the only person around it
doesn’t have TV coverage of the things that man got the black up now you’re
gonna be getting a TV picture now they’ll yes we are getting a TV picture one all my blog on i am president of nice french
space agency and the president-elect of the International Astronautical
Federation and it is my pleasure to welcome you here at the 67th
International Astronautical Congress it on muskies founder CEO and the designer
of SpaceX aloud from the SpaceX in 2002 with the guard of revolutions space
technology and intimately enabling humans to become a multiplanetary
species and that the plan is going to lay out for us today SpaceX is that the number of first
including as the first private company to deliver cargo to and from the
International Space Station and the first entity to learn that not darkness
booster back on land and on ships out at sea please join me in welcoming and musk yeah yeah thank you very much for having me look
forward to talking about the SpaceX Mars architecture and what I really want to
try to achieve here is to make Mars impossible make it seem as though it’s
something that we can do in our lifetimes and that you can go and that
is there really a way that that anyone could go if they wanted to i think
that’s that’s really important thing so very first of all I go anywhere right the i think that there are really two
fundamental past history is going to bifurcate long two directions 111 path
is we stay on earth forever and then there will be some eventual extinction
event I don’t have an immediate doomsday prophecy but there’s it’s eventually history suggests will be some subjects
event will be alternative is to become a spacefaring civilization and a
multi-planet species which I hope you agree that is the right way to go yes that’s what we want yeah so how do we figure out how to take
you to Mars and create a self-sustaining city and the city that it is not really
an outpost but could become planet in its own right and pressed best we could
become a truly multi-planet species that there are you know sometimes people
wonder what about other places in the solar system white wine Mars well just
sort of put things in perspective this is this is what this is an actual scale
of what the solar system looks like where we’re currently in the lead third
little rock from the left that’s worth here exactly but and and our goal is to
go to the fourth rock on the left that’s Mars but you get a sense for the
real scale of the solar system having the Sun is Jupiter Neptune Saturn Uranus
and then the little guys and on the right are Pluto and friends this is the
surfer that helps see it not not quite to scale but it gives you a better sense
for where things are so our options for we’re going to perform becoming a
multi-planet species within our solar system are unlimited we have in terms of nearby options we’ve
got Venus Venus is a high pressure and super-high pressure height acid bath so
that would be a tricky one venus is not at all like that the god s
this is not in no way similar to to the actual guess so it really difficult to make things work
on Venus mercury is also way too close to the Sun we could go up potentially on
the mark one of them on one of the moons of Jupiter or Saturn but those are quite
far out much further from the Sun a lot harder to get to it really leaves us
with one option if we want to become a multi-planet civilization and that’s
that’s Mars we could conceivably go to the moon and i am running against going
to the moon but i think it’s it’s challenging to create a had become
multiplanetary the moon because it’s it’s much smaller than been a planet it
doesn’t have any atmosphere it’s not as resource-rich as Mars it’s got a 28-day
day whereas the Mars days 24 and a half hours and it in general Mars’s is far
better suited to ultimately scale up to be a self-sustaining civilization just
to give some comparison between the that the two planets that they’re actually
feel remarkably close in a lot of ways and in fact we don’t believe that that
early Mars was a lot like Earth and in fact if we could warm ours up we would
once again have a thick thick atmosphere and liquid oceans so but way things are
right now Mars bars about half again as far from
the Sun as as Earth so still decent sunlight it is a little cold but we can
warm it up and it has a very helpful atmosphere which in the case of Mars
being primarily co2 with the nitrogen and argon and field trace elements means
that we can grow plants on Mars just by compressing the atmosphere and it’s and
it has nitrogen to which those are very important for growing plants it was
quite fun to be unwise because you have gravity which is about the 30 services is represent that of Earth
so you be able to lift heavy things and bound around and like a lot of fun and
that the day is remarkably close to that of both and so we just need to change
that bottom row is currently we have 7 billion people on earth and 0 on Mars so
there’s been a lot of great work by NASA and other organizations in early
exploration of Mars and understanding that what was like where could we land what’s the composition of the atmosphere
where where is there water order ice should say and and so we need to go from
these early exploration missions to actually building a city the the issue
that we have today is that if you look at a Venn diagram we the there’s there’s
there’s no intersection of sets of people who want to go and can afford to
go it in fact right now you cannot go to Mars for infinite money using
traditional methods you know if taking sort of policy I’ll approach the an
optimistic last number would be about 10 billion dollars a person so for example
Apollo program it the cost estimates are between a hundred to two hundred billion
dollars and current career dollars and we sent twelve people to the service of
moon it was an incredible thing and I probably the one the greatest
achievements of humanity but but that’s better misty price to pay for a ticket that’s
why these circles only just barely touch so you can create a self-sustaining
civilization if the ticket price is ten billion dollars per person what we need is a closer it is to move
those circles together and if we get a cut the cost of moving to Mars through
roughly equivalent to a median house price in the US which is around two hundred
thousand dollars then I think the probability of establishing associating
civilization is very high I think I think it would almost
certainly occur not not everyone who wants to go in fact I think I relatively
small number of people from Earth wanna go but enough would want to go and who
could afford the trip that would happen and you can get sponsorship and and I
think it gets the point where we’re almost anyone if they saved up and this
was their goal they could ultimately save enough money to buy a ticket and
route to Mars and why would have had labor shortage for a long time so it
just will not be in short supply so if it is a bit tricky because we have to
figure out how to improve the cost of trip to Mars by five million percent so
this is not easy and emits and it sounds like virtually impossible but i think i
think their ways to do with this is this translates to an improvement of
approximately four and a half orders of magnitude that these are the key
elements that are needed in order to achieve the four-and-a-half at order of
magnitude improvement most of the improvement would come from full
reusability somewhere between two and two and a half orders of magnitude and
then the other two orders of magnitude would come from refilling in orbit
propelled production Mars and choosing the right propellant so I’m gonna go
into detail all those for reusability is is really the best the super hard one it’s very difficult to achieve
reusability 44 even an orbital system and that challenge becomes even more
substantially greater for a system that has to go to another planet but as an
example of the difference between reusability and expandability in
aircraft and this you can actually use any form of transport you could say a
car bicycle horse if they were single use almost no-one
reducing the movie too expensive but with with with frequent flights you can
take something like that at an aircraft that cost 90 million dollars and if
we’re single use you have to pay half a million dollars per flight but you can
actually buy ticket on Southwest right now from LA to Vegas $43 including taxes
so that’s I mean that’s a massive improvement right there it’s your order of magnitude improvement
now this is harder the reusability doesn’t apply quite as much to Mars
because the number of times they could really use the spaceship is it the
spatial part of the system it is left less often because the earth was
rendezvous only occurs every every 26 months so you get to use the spaceship
art roughly every two years now you get to use the booster and the tanker as
frequently as you’d like and so it makes that that’s what really makes a lot of
sense to to load the space ship into orbit with essentially tanks dry have
really quite big tanks that you then use the booster and tanker to refill while
it’s in orbit and maximize the the payload of of this for the spaceships
that when it goes to Mars if you really have a very large payload capability so regions that are equally and open it
is is one of the essential elements of this without refilling it over to you
you would have a half order of magnitude impact roughly on on the cost by half of
magnitude I think audience mostly knows but what that means is each order of
magnitude is a factor of ten so not reflect not refilling in orbit would
mean a five hundred percent roughly $PERCENT increase in the cost per ticket it also analysis step to build a smaller
vehicle and lower the development costs although this speaker is quite big but
it would be much harder to build something that’s five to ten times the
size and it also reduces the sensitivity of performance characteristics of the of
the booster rocket and tanker so if there’s a shortfall in the performance
of of any of the elements you can actually make up for it by having one or
two extra refilling trips to the spaceship so this is it’s very important
for reducing the susceptibility of the system to a performance shortfall and
then producing parents on on wises are actually but you’re also very obviously
important again if if we didn’t do this it would have at least a half order of
magnitude increase in the in the cost of a trip so five hundred percent increase
in the cost the trip and every pretty absurd to try to build the city on Mars
if your spaceships just kept staying on Mars not going back to earth have this
like massive grade your graveyard of ships do something with them so it
really wouldn’t make sense to to illegal spaceships and Mars you really want to
build a propellant plant on Mars and send the ship’s back so that and what
happens to work out well for that because it has a CO 2 atmosphere it’s
got water ice in the soil and with h2o and co2 you can do ch4 methane and
oxygen o2 so picking the right balance is also important that sort of figures
maybe there’s three main choices and I’m gonna have that they have their merits
but kerosene or rocket-propelled grade kerosene which is also what the Jets use
rocket is a very expensive for more highly refined form of jet fuel
essentially which is a form of kerosene that it helps keep the vehicle sighs all
but because it’s a very specialized form of jet fuel its it’s quite expensive the
you reasonably casual is lower and very difficult to make this on my eyes
because there’s no oil so really quite difficult to make the count on was and
and then prepared transformers is is pretty good but not not great hydrogen
although it has a high specific impulse is is very expensive incredibly
difficult to to keep from boiling off because liquid hydrogen it is very close
to absolute zero as a liquid so the installation required is is tremendous
and the book the cost of the energy costs on Mars of producing and storing
hydrogen is very high so we look at the overall system optimization it was clear
to us that that methane actually was the clear winner so we require may be anywhere from fifty
to sixty percent of the energy on Mars to read to re-fall propellants are using
the propel depot and and just that the technical challenges are a lot easier so
so we think we think that thing’s actually better on it just really almost
across the board and and we sawed off initially thinking
that hydrogen would make sense but we can complete camp inclusion that the the
best way to optimize the cost per unit mass to Mars and back is is to use or
methane system ordered technically deep fryer mathematics so those are the four
the four elements that need to be achieved so this circle whatever
occupation but whatever system is designed whether by SpaceX or or anyone
we think these are the four features that need to be addressed in order for
the system to to really achieve a a low cost per cosper turn to the surface of
Mars and this is this is a simulation of your
system yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah so what you saw there is it’s really
quite close to what we will actually build it look almost exactly what you
saw like what you saw so this is not an
artist’s impression these but the simulation is actually made from the
Space engineering cad models so this is not you know such as well this is what
it might look like this is what we plan to try to make it look like so it in the video you see you get a
sense for what this is marked architecture looks like the rocket
booster in the spaceship and take off load that the spaceship into orbit the
rocket booster then comes back it comes back quite quickly within about 20
minutes and so it can actually launch the probe the the tanker version of the
spacecraft which is essentially the same as the as a spaceship but filling up the
unpressurized and pressurized cargo areas with an intense as they look
almost identical this this also helps lower the developer costs which
absolutely will not be small and and then that the propeller tanker goes up
and got actually a little got multiple times anywhere from three to five times
to fill the tank of the of the spaceship in orbit and then once the spaceship is
the tanks are full the Congress been transferred and we reach the Mars run
every timing which as measures roughly every 26 months that’s when the ship
will depart now up at our time there will be many spaceships you to
ultimately have I think upwards of a thousand or more space ships waiting in
orbit and so that the Mars colonial fleet would depart on mass kind of
battlestar galactica we’ve seen that thing as a quick picture so it like that and but it actually
makes sense to load the spaceships into orbit because you’ve got two years to do
so and then make frequent use of the booster and the tanker to get really
heavy we use out of those and then with the with the spaceship you get less to
reuse because you have said well how long it’s gonna last for maybe 30 years
that might be 12 to maybe 15 flights of a spaceship at most so you really want
to maximize the cargo of the spaceship and and and reuse the booster and the
that the tanker a light so here’s the bishop goes to Mars gets get prepared
replenished and then returns to Earth so going to some of the details the vehicle
design and performance and i’m gonna close over orders I’ll only talk a
little bit about that the technical details in the actual presentation and
then i’ll leave the the detailed technical questions to the to the Q&A
that follows this is to give us a sense of size the is quite big yeah and the other thing is i think in the
long term strips will be even bigger than this i think that this will
represent this will be relatively small compared to the Mars interplanetary
ships of the of the future i’m a better kind of needs to be about the size
because if in order to to fit a hundred people there about in the pressurized
section plus carry the luggage and all of the unpressurized cargo to pull
propellant plants and both everything from iron foundries two piece of joints
to you name it in the but we need care alot alot of cargo so it it really needs
to be roughly on this on this order of magnitude because if we say like be the
same amount of threshold for self-sustaining city on Mars a
civilization would be a million people well and you only go every two years if
you if you ever if you have a hundred people pressure as 10,000 trips so they
at least 200 people per trip is is the right order of magnitude and I think we
actually made up expanding that the crew section and ultimately taking more like
200 more people of light in order to reduce the cost per person so repetitive
it’s your ten thousand flights is a lot of life so you really want to help me
think on the order of a thousand ships and take a while to build up to a
thousand ships and so that if you say what win when we reach that
million-person threshold from the point which the first ship goes to Mars it’s
probably served between 20 to 50 total Mars rovers so it’s probably somewhere
between there may be 42 a hundred years to achieve a fully self
sustaining civilization large that’s the biggest requests section of the ship and
in some ways it’s not that complicated really be it’s made primarily of an
advanced carbon fiber the confiar part is tricky when dealing with deep regions
and and trying to achieve both liquid and gas in permeability and have and not
have gaps occur to cracking or pressurization that would make the comp
i believe key so that this is this is a fairly significant technical challenge
to make deep cryogenic tanks out of carbon fiber and it’s only recently that
the everything clicked the carbon fiber technology and has gone to the point
where we can actually do this with without having to create a liner on the
instrument of some sort of metal liner the liner on the inside of the tanks
Richard added mass and complexity so particularly tricky for the hot gaseous
oxygen pressurization so this is like to be more consciously pressurized which
means that the fuel and the oxygen we can certify them through he exchanges in
the engine and use that to pressurize the tanks of gas by the methane and use
that to pressurize the fuel tank gas production is that pressurize the oxygen
tank and this compares that this is a much simpler system than what we have
with with Falcon 9 where we use helium or pressurization and we use nitrogen
for gas thrusters in this case we’re attachments
consciously pressurize and then use gases methane and oxygen the control thrusters so really only
need two ingredients for this as opposed to for in the case of Falcon 9 and
actually five if you consider the ignition liquid we reuse a collective
that it is a complicated liquid to ignite the engines that that isn’t very
useful in this case but we reduce spark-ignition just give you a sense of
vehicles by performance current and historic if you actually read that but
in expandable mode at that the the vehicle parts that were proposing we do
about 550 turns and about 300 tons in reusable mode that compares to status
five max capability of 435 times but i think this at this really gives a better
sense of things the white bars sure the performance of the vehicle like it in
there was the pillar to orbit of the vehicle so you can see essentially what
what represents is what’s the size efficiency of the of the vehicle and
most drugs including ours that are out there are currently flying the
performance bar is only a small percentage of the actual size of the
rocket but with the inter planetary system with traditional views from Mars
we’ve been able to work we believe massively improve the design performance
so it’s the first time of rockets sort of performance bar will actually exceed
the physical size the rocket this gives you more direct comparison if
this is that the thrust that was is quite enormous talking about the liftoff
thrust of 13,000 times to be quite quite tectonic when it takes off but it is it
is fed on a pad 39a which NASA’s been kind of allowed to use where because
they sort oversized that the pad in doing saturday five it and as a result
we can actually do a much larger vehicle on that same launchpad and in the future
we expect that add additional more locations probably planning wanted in on
the south coast of texas but this gives you a sense of the process capability if
you read those but need these vehicles have very
different purposes of it the the this is really intended to carry huge numbers of
people ultimately millions of tons of cargo to Mars so you really need
something quite large in order to do that to talk about some of the key
elements of the implant in fiery spaceship and profit booster we decide
to start of the development with what we think about probably the two most
difficult elements of the design one is the Raptor engine and that this is going
to get the highest chamber pressure engine or any any kind of revolt and
probably the highest thrust-to-weight it’s a it’s a full flow stage combustion
engine which maximizes the theoretical momentum that you get out of a given
source of fuel and oxidizer we subcool the oxygen and methane to densify it so
compared to when it when proposed only use their use close to the morning . in
most rockets and in our case we actually know the propellers close to the
freezing point and that can result in a density improvement of up to around ten
to twelve percent which makes an enormous difference in the actual
results of the rocket it also makes the get rid of any cavitation risk for the
turbo pumps and it makes it easier to feed a high-pressure turbopup if you’re
very cool propellant really want the keys here though is the
the vacuum version of Raptor having a 382 second isp that this is really quite
critical to to the whole life’s mission and we covered with we can get to that
number or at least within a few seconds of that number ultimately may be
exceeding it slightly the rocket the rocket booster in many ways is is really
a scaled-up version of the Falcon 9 booster and you’ll see a lot of
similarities such as the Griffins obviously plastering a lot of engines at
the base and the bigger is really being that the primary structure is advanced
form of carbon fiber it as opposed to aluminum lithium and that we use our
tardiness pressurization and at everyone and get rid of the helium
and nitrogen so this uses 42 raptor engines lot of engines but reason I felt
in mine and with Falcon Heavy which should launch early next year this is 27 inches on the base so we’ve
got a pretty good experience with having a large number of edges it also gives us
redundancy so they have something engines fail you can still continuing
mission and be fine but the main job of this other booster is to accelerate the
spaceship to around eight and a half thousand kilometres an hour and it for
those that are less familiar with overall dynamics really it’s all about
velocity and not about height so that really that’s the job of the booster the
bruises like the javelin thrower so going to touch that javelin which is the
best the spaceship in the case of other planets though which have which have a
gravity well which is not as deep so Mars the moons of jupiter see if we
wanted maybe even penis the world happiness will be a little trickier but
for most of the solar system you only need the spaceship so you don’t
you don’t need the booster if you have a lower gravity was the no booster is
needed on the moon or was or any other moons of Jupiter or Pluto you just need
the spaceship the Bruce was just there for heavy gravity wells and they were we we’ve also been able to optimize the
propellant needed for weeks back in landing I to get it down to about seven
percent of the left or the proper felt load everything up with some optimization
we’ve got it down to about six percent and we’re also not getting quite
comfortable with the accuracy of the landing if you’ve been watching the
Falcon linings you’ll see that they’re getting increasing increasing closer to
the bullseye and we think particularly with it with the addition of additional
position of some thrusters and maneuvering thrusters we can actually
put the rooster right back on the Lord stand and then those pins at the base
are essentially centering features to take out any minor position mismatch at
the lower side so it looks like at the base so we think
we only need to get mobile or steer the central cluster of engines so there’s
the seven engines the center customer those would be the ones that that move
was during rocket and the other ones would be fixed in position which gives
us the best concentration of we can max out the number of engines don’t have to
leave any room for gambling removing the engine and and like this is all designed
so that you could actually lose multiple engines even had leftover for anywhere
flights and continue the mission safely so that for the spaceship itself in the
top we have the book that the pressurized compartment i’ll show you a
fly-through of that in a moment and their meat that is the is where we have
the unpressurized cargo which will be really flat packed a very dense format
and and below that is the liquid oxygen tank that the collection tank is
probably the hardest piece of this whole vehicle because it is going to handle
propellant to call this level and it and the tanks themselves actually formed the
pop-up form the airframe so the the airframe structure and the tax structure
are combined as it is in in all modern rockets and in aircraft for example they
built the wing is really a fuel tank inning in which shape so that it has to
take that but that the thrust loads of a sense the loads of re-entry and and then it has to be impermeable to
gaseous oxygen which is which is tricky and reactive to gas oxygen so that’s
that that’s the hardest piece of the spaceship itself which is actually why
we started on that element as well show you some pictures that later so they blow the oxygen tank is the fuel
tank and then the engines are mounted directly to that the thrust cone on the
base and then they’re there are 36 of the vacuum the high-efficiency vacuum
engines around the perimeter and those of those those don’t gamble and another
three of the sea level versions of the engine which do gamble and provide the
steering although we can do some some amount of steering if you’re in space by
with differential thrust on the outside edges the net effect is a car go to Mars
of about $OPERAND to 450 turns depending upon how many refills you do with the
the tanker and the goal is at least a hundred passengers per ship although i think offer legal policy that
number go to 200 more this is charged a little difficult to
interpret first but I can’t decide to put it there for people who want to
watch the video afterwards and and still take a closer look and analyze of the
numbers look at the column on the left is probably what’s most relevant and
that’s that gives you the trip time so depending upon which earth bonus
rendezvous training for the trip time at six filled from use per second departure
of last he can be as low as 80 days and then over time it would obviously
improve that and I’ll ultimately i suspect that you’d see much transit times of as
little as 30 days inn in the more distant future so it’s fairly manageable
considering the trucks that people used to during the old days that routinely
take sailing voyages that would be six months of warm so on arrival but the
heat shield technologies is extremely important we’ve been refining the heat shield
technology using our dragon spacecraft and we now have a weird version 3 of
pica which is ironic impregnated carbon ablator and is getting more of us with
each new version with with legislation more assistance is needed for punishment
the heat shields basically a giant brake pad so like how good can you make that
brake pad against extreme rarity conditions and minimize the look at the
cost of refreshment and eric is that you can have many flights with no
replacement at all this is applied through of the the crew
compartment to give you a sense of what it would
feel like to actually be the spaceship I mean in order to make it appealing and
an increase that portion of n diagram of people actually want to go it’s going to
be really fun and exciting and it can’t feel cramped or boring so at the crew
the crew compartment of the occupant compartment is set up so that you can do
0g games you float around will be like movies lecture halls your cabins
restaurant and we like really fun to go you have a great time server that the
propellant plant on Mars again some other slides that our going to it in
detail here but people can think about applying that the key point being that
the ingredients of their Mars to create a power plant with relative ease because
the atmosphere is primarily co2 and this water is almost everywhere you’ve got
the co2 + h2o to make methane ch4 and oxygen o2 using the severe reaction that
the the trickiest thing really is the the energy source which we think we can
do with the large field of solar panels so then to give you essentially cost
really really the key is is making this affordable to almost anyone who wants to
go and we think baseness architecture this architecture assuming optimization
overtime at the very first flights wouldn’t be would be fairly expensive
but the architecture allows for a cost per ticket of less than two hundred
thousand dollars maybe is less but maybe as little as a hundred thousand dollars
over time depending upon how much mass a person takes they were right now
estimating about a hundred forty thousand dollars return to service
tomorrow so if a person plus the luggage is less than that
taking about account through consumption and life-support then we think that the
constant of moving to Mars ultimately could drop below a hundred thousand
dollars so finding these are what about funding sources and so we could steal
underpants Lord satellites and Congress space station Kickstarter of course
followed by profit so the state can be a challenge to to fund this whole endeavor
which we do expect to generate very decent net cash flow from launching lots
of satellites and servicing the space station master transferring return from
space station and and then I know that this is a lot of people in the private
sector who are interested in helping fund a base on Mars and then perhaps
that we interest one on the government sector side to also do that ultimately
this is going to be a huge public private partnership and i think that’s
that’s that’s how united states established and many other countries
around the world is a public-private partnership is probably what what occurs
and right now we’re just trying to make as much progress as we can with the
resources that that we have available and just sort of keep keep moving both
forward and hopefully I think as we as we show that this is possible that the
stream is real not just a dream that consists of making
a real i think we support wall snowball overtime and i should say also that the
main reason i’m personally accumulating assets in order to fund this so i really
don’t have any other motivation for personal accumulating assets except to
be able to make the biggest contribution i cant to making life multiplanetary timelines not the best of this sort of
thing but just to show you where we started off in
2002 SpaceX basically consisted of carpet and mariachi band that was it that’s that’s all of SpaceX in 2002 as
you can see I’m a dancing machine and yeah we’ve been kicking off celebratory
events with mariachi bands are really like more insurance but that was what we
start off with in 2002 and really I mean I took we have maybe a ten percent
chance of doing anything of even getting rocked over that alone getting beyond
that and and and taking was seriously but I about conclusion that if if if
they were if it wasn’t some new entrance into it into space arena but with a
strong ideological motivation then it didn’t seem like we were on a trajectory
to ever be a spacefaring civilization and and be out there among the stars
because of here in 69 or able to go to the moon and the Space Shuttle get to
low-earth orbit and then of the spatial got retired but that trend line is down
down to zero so I think what people don’t appreciate that technology does
not automatically improve it it only improves if the letter really strong
engineering talent of a is applied to the problem that improves and many
examples in history where civilizations have reached a certain technology level
and then have fallen well below that and and and then recovered only millennia
later so you’re from 2002 we’re basically were clueless and then
and had felt with Falcon one that the smallest useful / rocket that we can
think of which would never have returned to orbit and it for years later we
developed the both of the first the first vehicle to drop the main in the
upper stage engine but the airframes the fairing and and the the launch system
and had our first attempt to launch in $MONTH 2006 which failed so that that
lasted about 60 seconds fortunately a bit put 2006 four years
after starting is also when we actually got a first NASA contract and i want to
say I’m incredibly grateful to NASA for supporting SpaceX despite the fact that
our rocket crashed was awesome well hellooooo I’m NASA’s biggest fan so you think
thank you very much to people that have the faith to do that so then 2006 followed by a lot of grief
and then finally the fourth launch of Falcon one worked in 2008 and we really
down to our last pennies in fact I only thought I had enough money for three
launches and first three body failed and we were able to scrape together enough
to just barely make it into do a fourth launch and that think that goodness that
fourth or succeeded in 2008 a lot of pain and then posted at the end of
$MONTH 2008 is when we’re nasa awarded us the first signal first major
operational contract which was for replying cargo to the space station to
bring a girl back then a couple years later we did the first quarter of $YEAR
falcon 9 version one that had about it attend unto over capability so it’s
about 20 times the capability of Falcon one and also assigned to to carry out
dragon spacecraft then 20 2010 is our first mission to the space station so we
were able to finish development of Dragon and dock with the space station
in 2010 so sorry too . 420 is expendable little brak expendable dragon 2012’s
when we delivered and return cargo from the space station 2013 when we first
started doing a lot of takeoff and landing tests and then 2014 is when we
were able to have the first orbital boost that do to a soft landing in the ocean landing
with soft wood developer exploded but landing 47 seconds it was good and we
also improved the capability of a vehicle from 10 tons to about the 13
tons to do and then 2015 your last year in december i was definitely the best
moment of my life when the rock beast came back and landed at Cape Canaveral
that was really yeah so they think that really sure there we
could bring an orbit class boost to back from a very high velocity all the way to
the launch site and landed safely and interned with with almost no
refurbishment required for flight and if things go well we were hoping to reef
lie one of land boosters and in a few months so and then 2016 also demonstrate
landing on ownership of the land ownership is important for the very high
velocity geosynchronous missions and that’s that’s important for feasibility
of thought nine because about roughly a quarter of our missions are us what sort
of servicing the space station and then there’s a few other low Earth orbit
missions but most of our missions probably there are sixty percent of our
missions are commercial geo missions so we’ve got these high velocity missions i
really need to land on the ship out to see they don’t have enough propellant on
board to Bruce back to the launch site so looking at the future next steps we
were kind of intentionally but fuzzy about this timeline but the we’re going
to try to make as much progress as we can obviously it’s with a breaking strain
budget but we’re going to try to make as much progress as we can on the elements
of the in-country transport rooster and spaceship and and hopefully we’ll be
able to do to complete the first development spaceship in maybe about
four years and start doing several flights with with that in fact actually
has enough capability that you could but maybe even go to orbit with if you limit
the amount of cargo with the spaceship about it when you have to really just
have to really step it down but it in tanker form it can definitely get to
offer take it back and get over it it actually starts thinking like maybe
there is a market for really fast transport of stuff around the world
provided we can land somewhere where noise is not a super big deal rockets very noisy but we could
transport cargo to anywhere on earth in 45 minutes at the at the longest so most
places on earth to be maybe 20-25 minutes so maybe if we had a floating
platform out off the coast of the USA or of course New York sit for 30 miles out
you can go from no New York to Tokyo in 25 minutes across the Atlantic in 10
minutes as really most your time will be getting to the ship and then every real
quick after that so some intriguing possibilities there although we’re not
we’re not counting on that and then and development of the boost actually think
the Brewster part is is relatively straightforward because we’ve it’s it
amounts to a scaling up of the Falcon I booster so this we don’t see a lot of
sort of showstoppers there yeah that but they’re trying to put it
all together and and make this actually work for Mars if things go super well it
might be kind of in the 10 year time frame but that this is what I don’t want
to say that’s when it will occur it’s like this huge amount of risk it’s going to cost a lot of good chance
we don’t succeed but we’re going to do our best and try to make as much
progress as as possible oh and we’re gonna try to send something to ma’s on every
monster interview from airing out so dragon 2 which is a propulsive lander we
plan to send to Mars in a couple years and then do probably another dragon
mission in 2020 in fact we want it is established steady cadence that there’s
always a flight leaving like a train leaving the station with every monster
whenever we will be transferred will be sending sending a dragon at least trying
to Mars and ultimately the big spaceship so the people that are interested in
putting payloads on on Dragon you know you can count on a ship that’s going to
transport something on the order of basic to the two three terms of useful
tailored to the surface of Mars yes that’s the best part the reason why
we designed dragon to be a propulsive lander is as a propulsive landing you
can you can go anywhere in the solar system so you can go to the moon you go
to hold anywhere really whereas if something relies on
parachutes for wings then you can pretty much only well if it’s if it’s a wings
you can press on and on earth because you need a runway most places don’t run
away and then any place doesn’t have a dense atmosphere you can’t use
parachutes so repulsive works anywhere so it’s a dragon should be people
planning on any solid liquid surface in the inner solar system and there’s
actually excited to see that the team managed to do the roll-up wrapped your
engine firing in advance of this conference there was I supposed to say
thanks to the Raptor team for really working seven days a week to try to get
this done of in advance of the presentation so I really want to show
that we’ve made some hardware progress in this direction and and the Raptors
are really tricky engines it’s a lot trickier than then Merlin
because it’s a full flow stage combustion much higher pressure and kind
of amazing blow up on the first firing but unfortunately it was as good it’s kind of interesting to the mark
diamonds forming so the apartment and fathers before
making the engines so small like a raptor although it has three times the
thrust of a melon is actually only about the same size as well an engine because
it has three times the operating pressure and that means we can use a lot
of the production techniques that we’ve honed with Merlin we’re currently
producing merlin engines at almost 300 per year so we understand how to make
rocket engines in volume was even though the the most vehicle uses 42 on the base
and mine on the upper stage 351 engines to to make that that’s well within our
production capabilities for Merlin and this is a similarly similarly sized and
into Melanie to accept the expansion ratio so we feel really comfortable
about being able to make this engine in volume at at a price that doesn’t
doesn’t break our budget and then we also want to make progress on the
primary structure so as I mentioned this this is really a very difficult thing to
make is to make something out of carbon fiber even the compiler has incredible
strength to weight when when you want one of them put super cold direction and
liquid methane particularly reduction in the tank is subject to to cracking and
leaking and it’s a it’s a variable thing to make just the sheer scale of it is
also challenging because you’ve gotta lay out the carbon fiber exactly right
way on a huge mold and you’ve got her cure that mole at temperature and and
then is it it’s in it it’s just really hard to make large large carbon fiber
structures that they can do all of those things and kari incredible loads so so that’s
that’s the other thing we want to focus on was the raptor and then building the
first development tank for the Mars spaceship so alex is the services but
this is really the hardest part of the spaceship the other pieces are we have a
pretty good handle on this was the trickiest one so we want to tackle it
first you get a size four how big the tank is it’s really quite big also congratulations to the team that
worked on that they’re also working seven days a week to try to get this
done in advance of the ISE and so they would manage to build the first tank and
initial tests with the cryogenic propellant actually look quite quite
positive we have not seen any leaks or or major issues is what the attack looks
like on the inside so you can get it to get a real sense
for how much just how big this attack is the it’s actually completely smooth on
the inside but the way that the common climate-wise layout and reflect the
light makes it look look faceted so what about beyond Mars so that as we thought
about the system and the reason we call it a system generally don’t like pulling
things systems because everything system including your dog the is that it is
that it’s actually more than a vehicle there’s this office of the rocket
booster the spaceship the tanker and the propellant plant the product on the
institute a profound production if you have all those four elements you can
actually go anywhere in the solar system by what by planet-hopping or woman
shopping so by establishing a propellant deeper on in the asteroid belt or on one
of the moons of Jupiter you can go to you can make flights from Mars to
Jupiter problem in fact even from even without a propensity for at Mars you can
do a flyby of of Jupiter without a penalty vote so but by establishing
propellant deeper let’s say you know Enceladus or grower or any of this if
you keep options and then do another one on titan Jupiter and Saturn’s moon and
perhaps another one further out on Pluto or elsewhere in the solar system that
this system really gives you freedom to go anywhere you want in the greater
solar system you can actually travel out to a capable to the Oort cloud i would
recommend this for interstellar journeys but this just this basic system provided
we have filling stations along the way is means full access to the entire
greater solar system I can’t hear about the only person
around it doesn’t have TV coverage of the moon I don’t mind it man they’ve got the flag
up now and you’re gonna be the starting from getting a TV picture never-fail yes
we are getting a TV picture now one all family

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